‘Zelensky just shattered Putin’s comfort – Ukraine war landscape is shifting’

Ukraine appears to be climbing the hill, but it hasn’t reached the summit. Kyiv’s reported first launch of an “advanced weapon” into Russia — revealed in an exclusive by the Daily Express — is a striking moment in the conflict. It marks Ukraine’s shift from a country forced to defend itself inch by inch into one now capable of hitting back deep inside Russian territory. It gives Ukraine a better hand than before and increases its ability to shape the fight. But a true upper hand — decisive, lasting dominance rather than moment-to-moment improvements — still lies some distance away. Moving from defence to limited offence is important, but real strategic advantage will demand resilience, consistent success, and serious coordination across cyber, intelligence, logistics, economic strength and Western backing.

That’s the real meaning behind the dramatic headlines. Calling this weapon “game changing” isn’t wrong — but only if we recognise that any game change happens over time, not in a single flash. Ukraine has spent months working to push beyond the static, grinding lines of attrition and into territory where it can inflict meaningful costs on the Russian war machine far from the front. A longer-range, domestically built strike capability proves that Ukraine is still innovating and still able to surprise Moscow.

The political and psychological effect is immediate. Russia has long relied on the assumption that its sheer size would offer natural protection — that targets deep inside its own borders were out of reach. This launch shatters that comfort.

It shows Moscow that it cannot simply bombard Ukrainian cities and expect no consequences. It also sends a vital message to Ukrainians themselves: after nearly three years of war, they are not powerless and the battlefield is not frozen.

But we should resist the seductive idea that one new missile can rewrite the entire war. No single weapon has done so yet. The fundamentals remain what they were: manpower, ammunition, industrial output, air-defence systems, training capacity, economic pressure and political will.

Ukraine’s new missile may force Russia to move logistics hubs further from the border and increase its defensive burden, but it does not magically eliminate Russia’s huge reserves or its ability to absorb losses.

This brings us to the question many readers now ask: does this strike bring us any closer to peace? The answer is both yes and no. Yes, because stronger military capability gives Ukraine more leverage whenever talks eventually come.

Kyiv can now negotiate knowing it has the ability to hit back — and Moscow knows it too. No leader walks into a peace conference from a position of total weakness.

But there’s another side. Increased capability can harden positions on both fronts. If Ukraine feels it is regaining momentum, it may be less willing to compromise. Why settle today if the military picture could look brighter in six months?

Russia, meanwhile, may react not with diplomacy but with escalation — a larger mobilisation, more strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, or renewed pressure on Western governments to limit support. Strength can prompt negotiation, but it can equally delay it.

So the real test is still to come. What matters is not the headline but the impact. If Ukraine begins to systematically disrupt Russian supply lines, command posts and industrial sites, then this weapon will indeed have shifted the balance.

If it triggers only outrage on Russian state TV and a redeployment of a few air-defence units, its effect will be more psychological than strategic.

Even then, that psychological impact counts. Wars are not just contests of firepower but of belief — who thinks they are winning, who fears they are losing, who has momentum. This first launch, by Ukraine’s own measure, changes expectations.

It reminds Moscow that Ukraine is far from done. It reassures Western partners that their investment has produced real capability. And it signals that innovation, rather than exhaustion, is still driving Ukrainian strategy.

It does not mean victory is around the corner or that peace is imminent. But it does mean the landscape is shifting. Ukraine has taken a step upward. How far it can climb depends on far more than a single weapon — but the climb has begun, and Russia will be watching every step with increasing unease.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk