Putin’s Strategic Failure: How the Ukraine War Is Eroding Russia From Within

And there is one sure thing about the fall of gods: they do not fall a little; they crash and shatter or sink deeply into green muck.

– John Steinbeck, East of Eden

Evil people don’t have songs. How is it, then, that the Russians have songs?

– Friedrich Nietzsche, Twilight of the Idols

OPINION — The war that Russian President Vladimir Putin started in Ukraine may finally be turning in a direction that will result in Russia’s defeat as the strategic tide seems to be turning against Putin.

Russian casualties in Ukraine continue to mount as the Ukrainians are now effectively taking the war to the Russian Federation. Russia’s wartime economy is starting to show signs of strain, and evidence may be emerging that discontent with Putin leadership is starting to grow in some of Moscow’s elite circles.

One hopes that when he returns from his Asia trip, President Trump will turn his focus to the actions of his erstwhile friend Putin. This is a good time to soberly assess Russia and Putin’s current situation and the prospect that Russia might be on a path to losing the war they started.

In recent weeks, there have been a number of reported incidents of Russian drone and aircraft incursions over neighboring states, including the airspace of NATO members. In an escalation of nuclear saber rattling, Putin has tested a Burevestnik cruise missile, a Poseidon nuclear capable “super-torpedo” and conducted large-scale nuclear drills.

These are signs of weakness not strength and are certainly designed to intimidate leaders in the West—including President Trump—to reduce military and economic support to Ukraine. Putin’s strategy with regard to Trump again seems to have backfired with Trump announcing that the U.S. will resume nuclear testing after a pause of more than thirty years.

President Trump also made public the fact that the U.S. has nuclear capable submarines stationed off Russia’s coast. This is not the revelation of a strategic or military secret — just a reminder to Putin (and Russia’s elites) that the U.S. is a strategic nuclear power and Putin’s use of a nuclear weapon would result in the destruction of the Russian Federation and his kleptocracy.

Some Ukrainian leaders believe that there is a number of Russian casualties they can inflict that would bring about the collapse in the fighting effectiveness of the Russian army in Ukraine. While hard data on Russian casualties is difficult to gather, credible estimates put Russian combat deaths at over 200,000 and total casualties at over 1.1 million – many of those killed in 2025 as a result of Russia’s strategy of fighting a war of attrition using outmoded tactics to gain territory that can be measured in tens of kilometers.

Ukrainian leaders also believe that taking the war to the Russian people will have an impact on Moscow’s ability to sustain the invasion. Ukraine has done this effectively in recent months, even without Tomahawks.

Ukraine has used targeting data and weapons supplied by the West (Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles and ATACMs) to strike targets deep inside of Russia. These weapons combined with Ukrainian long-range drone capabilities (and ingenious operations such as SPIDER WEB) are taking the fight to the Russian Federation and making the war visible to the average Russian, despite efforts by Russian state-controlled media to push the false narrative that Russia is winning the war.

The economic impact of strikes against Russian energy infrastructure is beginning to be felt outside of Moscow as Russia diverts available energy from the regions to keep Moscow supplied. There are shortages and energy price hikes that the Kremlin can no longer conceal.

Russia’s economy is also suffering the impact of more effective and comprehensive sanctions on Russian energy production and sales. European purchases of Russian hydrocarbons are diminishing and the U.S. has levied new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and a number of their subsidiaries. This will have an impact on the network of oligarchs that support Putin. Inflation is also rising at an 8 percent increase year on year. There is scarcity of critical parts affecting the production of things like automobiles, aircraft and consumer appliances. It is only technology provided by China that keeps Russia’s defense industrial base functioning.

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Even this may be less sustainable in the long run if there is any truth to reports that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had productive conversations on ending the war. (I’m personally skeptical that Xi will do much to disappoint his partner and friend, Putin.)

There are also unconfirmed reports of growing discontent among Russian elites. A number of media sources now suggest that Mikhail Khordokovsky may be trying to organize a coup to remove Putin from power. It was only about 18 months ago that Yevgeniy Prigozhin launched a rebellion that saw his forces moving with surprising speed and success toward Moscow. Apparently in some circles in Russia, Putin is derisively referred to as the “moth.” And since Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, an estimated one million Russians, mostly youth, have emigrated, creating a brain drain and, together with military casualties, exacerbating a labor shortage.

The situation is increasingly bleak. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO – turning the Baltic into a NATO lake. Ukrainian strikes have driven Russia’s Black Sea fleet from the eastern reaches of the Black Sea undermining Russian naval power. Europe is rearming and defense spending in NATO states is moving toward compliance with Treaty requirements or beyond. The alliance itself has been given new purpose.

Putin has destroyed any possibility of peaceful accommodation with Ukraine and in the process, has created a nation that will move inexorably toward a Western political and economic model. This is a strategic failure of Putin’s that cannot be undone.

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In other areas of the former Soviet Union, Russian influence continues to wane.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed to a U.S.-brokered peace agreement. Kazakhstan is showing new political and economic independence. Putin’s ally Iran has suffered significant setbacks at the hands of U.S. ally Israel. Putin’s friend and supporter Bashar al Assad lost his hold on power in Syria and is in hiding in Moscow. The U.S. has led peace efforts in the Middle East as Moscow has been sidelined.

Now is the time for decisive action to end the conflict in Ukraine.

The action needs to take place on three levels: political, economic and military.

As discussed at the recent Cipher Brief Threat Conference in Sea Island, Georgia, the West has yet to meaningfully coalesce international political support behind Ukraine beyond gatherings of European and or NATO leaders. The U.S. should sponsor a global meeting of heads of states from around the world to decisively declare support for Ukraine, brand Russia and Putin as the aggressor in the conflict, and call for Russian withdrawal, payment of reparations for war damage and remand war criminals to justice. The simple message should be, “Mr. Putin, end this war!”

Secondly, the U.S. and the West need to increase further pressure on Russia’s economy to weaken Russia’s ability to prosecute the war.

And thirdly, military support to Ukraine needs to be increased, particularly in air defense technology and the delivery of systems that allow Ukraine to continue to take the war to the Russian Federation and make Russians feel the pain of the conflict. A concerted effort on these fronts will almost certainly lead to Putin’s demise and the end of the war.

Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov constantly talk about the need to address the ”root causes” of the conflict. Quite simply, Putin is the root cause of the conflict and addressing his delusions of empire is the surest way to end it. That can’t come soon enough for the brave people of Ukraine and the world.

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