Team India’s qualification scenario for WTC 2025-27 final after defeat in Kolkata Test against South Africa

Team India‘s hopes of reaching the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025-27 final suffered a major jolt after their shocking 30-run defeat to South Africa in the first Test at the Eden Gardens, Kolkata. Chasing a modest 124, the hosts crashed under pressure as Simon Harmer dismantled the middle order with his disciplined spin bowling. The unexpected collapse has not only dented India’s campaign but has also placed them in a tight corner for the remainder of the WTC cycle.

India slide to fourth as Points Percentage takes a hit

The defeat against the defending WTC champions proved costly for Shubman Gill‘s men in the points table. India have now completed eight matches in the cycle, registering 4 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, which has dragged their Points Percentage (PCT) down to 54.17%.
This slump has pushed them to fourth place, leaving little breathing room as other contenders tighten their grip on top-two positions. With several challenging away tours still lined up, India must treat every match as a virtual knockout to resurrect their campaign.

India’s qualification scenario: What Shubman Gill-led side must do to reach the WTC Final

Target: Reach above 65% PCT

Historically, teams finishing above 65% PCT have safely qualified for the WTC final. For India to breach that mark this cycle, their remaining fixtures must yield a near-flawless run. With 10 Tests still remaining, the equation is tough but not impossible.

Win-at-all-costs approach required

India must maximise points from here on, with minimal room for more defeats. The following scenarios outline their path:

• Best-Case Route: Win 8 of the remaining 10 Tests

If India secure eight wins, even with two draws, their PCT will comfortably climb above 65%. This would place them in direct contention for a top-two finish.

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• Balanced Route: Six wins and four draws

A scenario of 6 wins and 4 draws ensures a PCT of around 68.52%, keeping India above the qualification threshold. However, this leaves no scope for defeats.

• Risky Route: Two losses and one draw

If India end their remaining matches with 2 losses and 1 draw, their PCT drops to 64.81%, leaving them borderline but still in the race depending on other results.

• Worst-Case: Three losses and one draw

Any combination that results in three defeats drags India below the 60% mark. In such a case, qualification becomes extremely unlikely unless major upsets occur involving other teams.

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